Unclear development of global trade continuing

Unclear development of global trade continuing

23/09/2014

The container throughput index of the Rheinisch-Westflisches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) has slightly increased from (revised) 121.4 to 122.0 points in August. Despite this increase, the level of June was not reached again. The current value roughly corresponds to the average of the past six months, which indicates a further unclear trend of global trade.

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

Picture: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©

 

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"OMC reduce pronósticos de comercio mundial para 2014 y 2015" (23/09/2014)

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"Los precios en el transporte marítimo de contenedores mantienen una tendencia al alza desde el pasado mes de marzo" (18/09/2014)

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El precio de los fletes en el transporte marítimo de contenedores en las operaciones transoceánicas continúa su tendencia al alza experimentada desde marzo de este 2014. A excepción de una ligera caída en junio, el coste del transporte marítimo en las operaciones internacionals alcanzaba en marzo los 1.900 dólares (1.467 euros) por contenedor de 40 pies, alcanzando los 2.150 dólares (1.660 euros) en agosto.

 

"Container trade continues to grow" (08/09/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

According to Container Trades Statistics, volumes in the Asia to Europe trades continued to grow in July. However, the rate was slower than in May and June. The latest data illustrates that westbound volumes amounted to almost 1.4 million teu in July, a jump of 7.3% in comparison to the same month last year. May and June saw year-on-year increases of 11.7% and 10.2% respectively.

 

"China issues guidelines to help shipping industry" (08/09/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

"H1 earnings scorecard shows mixed results for carriers" (04/09/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

According to Alphaliner, the half-year financial results of 17 main carriers showed six carriers reporting positive operating profits. The field was led by Maersk which posted a USD 978 million profit for a core ebit margin of 7.3%. Maersk’s performance places the shipping line well ahead of the rest of the market, with the average margin of the 17 carriers at –0.5% for H1/2014. This was an actual improvement over the –2.3% margin that the same carriers reported one year earlier.

 

"Anything but the summer doldrums" (04/09/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

"Shippers benefit from reduced costs" (03/09/2014)

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"Freight rates: competitiveness gap between China und USA" (29/08/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

"Reefer box capacity forecast to grow 22% by 2018" (25/08/2014)

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"Global containership fleet set to shrink" (22/08/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

"Employed fleet growth at highest level since 2011" (21/08/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

"Between a beer and champagne mood (quarterly survey of the maritime economy)" (06/08/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The mood in the maritime industry got slightly worse between March and May, but it was still at the second-highest level of the past six years, according to the latest survey by the international consultancy and auditing network Moore Stephens. While those questioned still believe that the prospects for new investments have basically improved this year, the hopes of higher cargo rates, particularly in the market for tankers and dry bulk freight, have hit the buffers.

 

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"An ever-widening gap at the top" (08/07/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Economies of scale are having an impact. A glance at the quarterly results of the 17 most important liner shipping companies shows that large lines retain substantial advantages vis-à-vis smaller ones when it comes to generating positive returns. A wave of mergers is nevertheless not very likely, as ownership structures and political interests often impede partnership deals.

 

"Shipping confidence softens amid overtonnaging concerns" (03/07/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell slightly during the three-month period to May 2014 but remain at their second-highest level for the past six years, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.

 

"Bleak year ahead for carriers says Drewry" (03/07/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

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"No longer negative, now stable" (03/06/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The US credit rating and research organisation Moody’s has revised its global shipping industry outlook, predicting that the sector’s aggregate ebitda will rise, now that the trough has been passed. There is no reason for euphoria yet, however, as the analyst believes that overcapacities and volatile freight rates will remain a problem over the next 18 months.

 

"Ownership structure obstacle to industry consolidation" (28/05/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Analyst Alphaliner has pointed out that the ownership structures of the 21 largest container shipping companies are the biggest impediment to carrier consolidation. Although 14 out of the top 21 carriers are publicly listed companies, they are controlled by either state-owned entities or family-owned shipping empires that tend to be more resistant to takeovers.

 

"Maersk y MSC encabezan el incremento en lo que va de año de la flota de portacontendores" (19/05/2014)

Fuente: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©. Leer noticia aquí

 

"Moody's revises global shipping industry outlook to stable" (06/09/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The rating agency Moody’s has revised its outlook for the global shipping industry to stable from negative, for the first time since June 2011. In its latest report on the shipping sector titled "Change to stable outlook for shipping sector reflects ebitda growth", Moody says that cost reductions, including the effects of lower bunker prices, as well as the application of slower steaming speeds and efficiency savings, have driven the growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda).

 

"Alphaliner: mixed bag of results for carriers in 2013" (09/04/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The analyst Alphaliner said that the average operating margins for container carriers remained under pressure in 2013. Whilst this hardly comes as a surprise, the aggregate operating income turned positive for the first time since 2010. The combined operating income of 19 main carriers surveyed by Alphaliner reached USD 247 million, although only six out of the 19 carriers reported positive operating margins in 2013. The positive combined result is due to the strong performance of Maersk and CMA CGM, which recorded core operating profits of USD 1.524 billion and USD 756 million respectively, according to Alphaliner.

 

"Is change on the horizon?" (07/04/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

According to Alix Partners’ 2014 Container Shipping Outlook, this year's prospects for the container shipping industry are bleak. This is hardly new news. However, the analyst says that the widespread financial distress is finally having an impact on carriers and other key stakeholders, as the industry is now seeing a number of profound structural changes that may result in broad-ranging impacts on the major market participants.

 

"Liner shipping poised for further consolidation"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The rating agency Fitch has issued a statement saying that consolidation in the container shipping segment through alliances or mergers is likely to accelerate due to persistent overcapacity and freight rates pressure.  Recent developments, including the proposed merger of Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV, US regulatory approval of the P3 network, and the expansion of the CKYH alliance to include Evergreen will all add to the pressure on smaller operators to consolidate.

 

"Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV merger set to move forward"

Source: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©. Read news here

 

"Estados Unidos da luz verde a la alianza P3 y advierte de que monitorizará su impacto"

Source: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©. Read news here

 

"Shipowners support EU for liner consortia block exemption"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

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Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from the international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. Freight rates look set to improve or maintain existing levels over the next twelve months, while an increase in private equity funding is expected to have a major impact on the industry.

 

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Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The container throughput index compiled by the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) has decreased slightly from a corrected 120.3 to 119.3. However, this is still the second highest volume ever recorded. The index is hence still at a high level, confirming that world merchandise trade is faring well.

 

"Drewry: rates down on post-CNY blues"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Following three consecutive months of price rises, freight rates on the east-west trades declined in February, according to Drewry’s online Container Freight Rate Insight. Rates came under most pressure on the Asia-Europe trade, which weakened following a meteoric rise in the run-up to the Chinese New Year. Drewry’s Asia-Europe westbound freight rate index dropped by 12% in February to USD 2,992 per 40ft container, while weekly data from the World Container Index assessed by Drewry indicates that the pricing erosion continued into March.

 

"Alphaliner: containership capacity growth to slow"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

According to research by the analyst Alphaliner, the global containership fleet is expected to grow at its slowest rate in over a decade. The analyst estimates the capacity growth rate to reach 5.5%, which would be the lowest annual increase since 1999, as a surge in containership scrapping and delivery deferrals would mitigate the record level of new ship deliveries due in 2014.

 

"Ever bigger vessels - ever longer transit times"

Picture: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©. Read news here

 

"Maersk could lose market share lead by 2016"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Analyst Alphaliner has pointed out that the Danish shipping line Maersk sent a mixed signal to the market at its capital markets day presentation at the end of September. The Danish carrier stated that it will vigorously defend its market share, but will not seek to order any more new ships until 2015. It will rather redeliver a large part of its current chartered fleet.

 

"Will FE-Europe rate hikes stick?"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The shipping analyst Alphaliner remains sceptical about the rate hike on the trade lane between the Far East and Europe planned for 1 July. Spot rates on the trade have plummeted from a peak of USD 1,800/teu last year to the current USD 550/teu. The recent rate slide since March is the steepest that the industry has witnessed.

 

"More capacity on transpacific trade"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

According to the analyst Alphaliner, the Far East to North America market will face another tumultuous year ahead as new capacity additions will limit carriers' ability to press ahead with plans to raise rates on the trade. Transpacific capacity will increase by 6.8% in the peak season this year, based on Alphaliner’s estimates, with the capacity to the US west coast increasing by 8.9%, while the capacity to the USA's eastern seaboard will grow by 2.2%.

 

"Drewry: ULCV capacity cliff ahead"

Picture: INCOTRANS ® - International Business Advisors ©. Read news here

 

"Bad timing for ocean carriers"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

Europe’s continuing economic recession remains badly timed for ocean carriers who still have an armada of ultra large container vessels planned for delivery before the end of the year. At the end of April, the shipping companies had another 31 ships over 10,000 teu due for delivery this year, including Maersk’s first 18,000 teu leviathans, whose delivery schedule was originally organised around peak season growth. The market should normally be receiving more promising signals soon about the peak season to come in the third quarter, but nothing has yet appeared on the radar screen.

 

"Global containerised volumes on the rise"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

With global output continuing to expand at faster rates, global containerised volumes recorded their second highest year-on-year increase, after August in September according to the research of container trade statistics.

 

"RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index: growth accelerates"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index improved significantly in December, from a revised 117.9 to 119.9. This is the highest value since it started publication two years ago. The December increase was the sixth in a row, indicating a rather pronounced expansion of international merchandise trade. A large part of this revision is explained by a change of seasonal factors of the past months, triggered by the inclusion of the December value.

 

"Moody's: US ports 2014 outlook is negative" (05/02/2014)

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here

 

The rating agency Moody's says that this year's outlook for the US ports industry is negative, due to the assumption that container volume growth will lag behind the historical norm and thus put pressure on the industry's biggest customers. The rating agency also stated that the negative forecast is being driven by the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping line industry, which ports rely on for revenue. Although fleets are growing in number and size, demand is not keeping pace and this imbalance puts pressure on shipping lines and the rates they pay US ports.

 

"Obama stresses need for port investment"

Source: ITJ (International Transport Journal). Read news here